Here we go! Week 4 picks are in, see below. We are examining more closely our biases, having had years in this system, with a consistent winning record, in efforts to strike a greater balance in a few key areas.
- Picking Favorites – this goes back a long way, and I am putting more pressure on myself to ‘seek out winning dogs’ each week, even where it feels risky.
- Picking Overs – for example, our total points predicted in all 3 weeks to-date has been 60-100 points above the total actual points scored.
Third straight week making a 7* play; let’s see if we can keep the winning streak going.
Week 7, here we go. See if we can bounce back from a rough Week 6. Picking games in the NFL, like most professional sports, is not easy, and I cannot stress enough how close to 50/50 the process is. The ONLY chance that one has to win any money gambling on or investing in the NFL is by a methodical, long term process. Look at Week 6 results as a reminder – a big loss, but that is just 1 out of 17 weeks over a 4 month season. This process, the NFL Portfolio methodology, is a patient, ‘long-term’ (meaning Season Long) approach. It has worked, not flawlessly, but productively, with positive wins, for 9 straight years, and here we are a third of the way through Season 10, and doing very well.
Enjoy the games, and don’t put all your eggs in any one basket! There are no such things as “Locks” in sports, especially when money is on the line. Don’t ‘gamble’ – emotionally or financially; instead use your instincts, reasoning and then take a measured, objective approach.
UP/DOWN: TBD <> RECORD: TBD
Here we go. On the heels of a record setting month (Sep 2020), we look to keep up the momentum here in October. All games, versus Spreads/Lines, Totals and Teasers, are now in play.
L: ($16,200) <> RECORD: 19-20-0 (49%)
First losing week of the season, with minimal damage.
As we can see, we’re still quite well ahead on the year. Things can always turn, so we will just take it one week at a time, following the methodology.
UP $153,200 <> RECORD: 30-12-0 (71%)
Week 4 Portfolio Allocation (Predictions)
With COVID hitting home – one game moved to Week 7, and one game moved to later this week – we’re down on plays, to 41 Plays overall, 25 of which are 5*. 15 ATS (Against The Spread), 15 Total (O/U) Plays and 11 Teasers. Lock of the Week (Packers -5 vs. Falcons).
UP $50,400 <> RECORD: 23-20-3
Here we go, looking to build off of a strong 2020 start. No fans in the stands, no matter. The show goes on.
We’ve taken some early hits with a wildly unpredictable Thursday Night game. 35-30 Browns, who would have thought – but anything can happen in this game, as in life. That is why we play the long game, with discipline and detachment.
Steelers are this week’s ‘Best Bet’, and there are 30 5* Plays on the Board.
WEEK 1 RESULTS: 25-17-2 >> UP +97,200
Yes, it seems that there is going to be a season for real, so let’s see what it looks like with no fans in the stands, and all of the COVID-19 Protocols in place.
RECORD: 2-0-0 // GAINS: +$6,000
Week 12 is in progress, and we had a good start on Thursday Night Football, winning on all 4 plays. NFL betting is an up and down game. Getting out of the gate strong in a given week helps.
Below are all Week 12 NFL Game picks, with 14 Against the Spread (ATS), 14 Totals (Over/Unders) and 10 Teaser plays, rated from 1-5 Stars. I hope that I don’t regret this – calling on the Cowboys as our Best Bet against the very tough Patriots team and defense, in Gillette Stadium.
Some blockbuster games this week – very exciting – including Packers at 49ers and Ravens at Rams. We start to get a sense of who is for real at this point forward; as the great Bill Parcells used to say, “talk to me after Thanksgiving”.
RECORD: 22-17-0 // GAINS: +$3,000
Week 11 was (barely) a winner – so I’ll call it a draw. Always good to have a positive record though, +5 in terms of Wins/Losses.
Looking to stay on the positive side of the ledger; and the week has already started off well, with 4 winning hits with the Browns-Steelers melee (literally)!
Below are all Week 11 NFL Game picks, with 14 Against the Spread (ATS), 14 Totals (Over/Unders) and 10 Teaser plays, rated from 1-5 Stars. Generally, we’re at 3-5 Stars for all possible plays this season, opting to play rather than defer most of the time, as 1-2 Star picks do not get any wagering allocation.
RECORD: 17-19-0 // LOSSES: $35,400
Week 10 was one to forget; but alas, we can always learn something from our experiences. Part of the strength of the NFL Portfolio “Way” is consistency in our process, regardless of prior week’s results. The season is a marathon, not a sprint, and there are always ups and downs. It is good to still be up on the season, and remain there even after taking a hit like this. We will grow from here on in, as we gear up for the last 7 weeks of the season. It’s going by fast!
Full results available here.
Week 10 plays Against the Spread (ATS), Totals and Teasers shown here.