2018 – Week 4 Predictions & Results [9/27-10/1]


Well, we couldn’t go undefeated forever on a weekly basis.  Week 4 came down to the wire, and Kansas City’s 27-23 comeback Win over Denver brought that game (a 5* Graded Play in our book) to a Push – if it were a Win, we would have ended up with a Plus week.  So be it.  Here are some quick snippets and the overall Portfolio Book for Week 4 (2018).

  • 15-17-3 (47%) Overall Record
  • ($3,100) Losses
  • 7-5-3 (58%) on 5* Graded Plays
  • 4-7 (36%) on 4* Graded Plays
  • 4-5 (44%) on 3* Graded Plays
  • 5-6 (45%) on Teasers
  • 6-6 (50%) on Total Plays // Interestingly, we were 3-0 on Total Picks with low grades (1 and 2*), which is not typical

The good news is that we’re still 3-1 on the season and up $31,200 overall.  March Forth to Week 5!


This week marks the Quarter point of the season, and move into a new month by the time Monday Night Football comes around on October 1st.  That was a quick first month of football, but thankfully, there is a long way to go.

With a 3-0 record in terms of overall weekly dollar amount Won/Lost, we’re feeling good going into Week 4.  It’s the first week where there are Byes, which means only 15 rather than 16 games on tap – something that we generally don’t like (less games = less winning and diversification opportunities).

Interestingly, this is the lowest proportion of 5* Graded Plays that we’ve had this season (35%), as opposed to 50%, 44% and 55% in Weeks 1-3.  So along with having one less game, it’s by far the lowest portfolio allocation at risk versus prior weeks @ $115,000 (highest was Week 1 = $175,950).

Lock of the Week is the Underdog Browns (+3) at Oakland.  I think Mayfield is going to do well, and the Browns are starting to establish an identity as a strong Defensive team that can also score some points.

Stay tuned for updates as the week progresses.  Tonight’s game – Vikings at Rams – on Thursday Night Football should be a good one!

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